December 20, 2001 Volume 4, Number 11
CONTENTS
* Introduction - Editor's Comments
* What's New at www.gdsourcing.ca
* Statistics Canada releases
* 'Tis the Season for Holiday Polls
* What's in store for e-Christmas 2001
* Small Business Stats Facts
RETURN
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INTRODUCTION - EDITOR'S COMMENTS
Hello,
Welcome to this issue of the BR Newsletter.
I would like to thank everyone who came to visit our booth at the Small
Business Information Expo. It is always a pleasure to put a face to an
e-mail address!
You will see below that Statistics Canada has been very generous this
holiday season and released a great deal of data over the last few weeks.
Of particular interest to business researchers is the household
spending estimates data. If your market is Canadian households this data
is an essential source of information for determining market size, share
and trends for specific household product/service expenditures. It reveals
how much households typical spend on your product/service in a year, what
percentage of households report a purchase, and how income, geography and
household type influence purchasing patterns. The data covers 1998, 1999
and 2000.
GDSourcing is an official distributor of this database. Instead of
acting as a straight reseller though, we have enhanced the data with
graphs, commentary and historical content and have made it more accessible
to Canadian entrepreneurs. First and foremost, you only have to purchase
the expenditure categories you need. (E.g. you don't have to buy the
entire database if you only want to know about tent-trailer expenditures!)
A full Canadian Market Estimates profile includes expense segmentation
by income quintiles (1999, 2000), by household type (1999, 2000) and by 10
provinces and 15 major metropolitan areas (1997-2000). The cost per
expenditure category is $75.00 (for 3 or more categories the cost is $60
each).
While this is an amazing price (ask any other research firm!) we
realize that many entrepreneurs in start-up mode have extremely limited
budgets. Therefore this year we are offering a new Canadian Market
Estimates Summary Profile. It provides national expenditure data for your
particular product/service segmented by income quintile and household
type. The cost is only $16.00
For more information on the products/services covered and to see sample
profiles please see our web site at:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/CMEinfo.htm
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season. See you in 2002!
Sincerely,
John White
Editor
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WHAT'S NEW AT www.gdsourcing.ca - RETIREMENT, OIL
RIGS, AND PCs
The following web sites were added to the GDSourcing index over the
last three weeks. GDSourcing is a reference point for free Canadian
statistics on-line.
Canadian Labour & Business Centre
http://www.clbc.ca/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/CLBC01.htm
- Where Did All the Workers Go? The Challenges of the Aging Workforce,
workplace data
Baker Hughes
http://www.bakerhughes.com/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/BakerH.htm
- Rotary Rig Count 1985 - 2001 Canadian Land & Offshore Split, 1964 -
2001 Canadian Count
IDC Canada
http://www.idc.ca/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/IDC.htm
- Canadian PC Market - (Personal Computers) - factory shipments by
company: IBM, Dell, Compaq, HP, and Toshiba. Also includes releases on
overall IT market and IT channel
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STATISTICS CANADA RELEASES
The following statistics were release by Statistics Canada over the
last three weeks. We have listed those releases we feel are of the most
interest to Canadian entrepreneurs.
Very few of these statistics are available on-line. The URL listed is a
direct link to the press release associated with the data. It provides
contact and ordering information.
If you want to purchase any publication related to these releases
please see our web site:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/StatCan.htm
We offer a 20% discount on most Stats Can publications and a 10%
discount on Stats Can electronic products. For more information you can
reach us at [email protected]. Put "StatsCan" in the subject line of
your e-mail.
AGRICULTURE
Production and value of honey and maple products 2001
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011119/d011119f.htm
Canadian Potato Production 2001 (preliminary) and 2000 (revised)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011123/d011123e.htm
Farming operating revenues and expenses 2000 (preliminary estimates)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011203/d011203h.htm
Canada Food Stats
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011204/b011204a.htm
BUSINESS SERVICES & FINANCIAL SERVICES
Accounting and bookkeeping services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011127/d011127f.htm
Registered Retirement Savings Plan contributions 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011128/d011128f.htm
Savers, investors and investment income 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011129/d011129e.htm
Employer-sponsored pension plans January 1, 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011210/d011210a.htm
Survey of Financial Security: Private pension savings 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011214/d011214a.htm
Architectural services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011205/d011205d.htm
Annual Survey of Engineering Services Industry 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213j.htm
Annual Survey of Surveying and Mapping Services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213k.htm
Translation and interpretation services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213l.htm
CHARITY / NON PROFIT
Charitable donors 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011127/d011127b.htm
COMPUTER SERVICES
Information and communications technologies 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011217/d011217j.htm
Annual Survey of Software Development and Computer Services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011126/d011126d.htm
Informatics professional services price indexes 1999 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213i.htm
CONSTRUCTION - REAL ESTATE
Real estate rental and leasing and property management industries 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011217/d011217l.htm
National Construction Industry Wage Rate Survey 2001
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011120/d011120c.htm
Capital expenditures by type of asset 1998 and 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011207/d011207e.htm
Survey of the Construction Industry 1998 and 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011212/d011212b.htm
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The male-female wage gap: what do the various estimates mean? 1997
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011217/d011217m.htm
Multifactor productivity 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011217/d011217b.htm
Differences in interprovincial productivity 1996-1997
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011206/d011206h.htm
EDUCATION
Measuring student's skills and knowledge: The performance of Canada's
youth in reading, mathematics and science 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011203/d011203i.htm
Participation in postsecondary education and family income 1998
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011207/d011207c.htm
ENERGY
Electric power generating stations 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011210/d011210g.htm
GOVERNMENT
Federal government finance: Assets and liabilities March 31, 2001
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011127/d011127c.htm
Provincial and territorial government finance: Assets and liabilities
March 31, 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011207/d011207b.htm
HEALTH
Alternative health care practitioners 1998/99
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213b.htm
HOSPITALITY
Annual Survey of Traveller Accommodation 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011212/d011212c.htm
Food services and drinking places 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011217/d011217k.htm
INTERNET
Annual Survey of Internet Service Providers 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011126/d011126c.htm
Wired young Canadians, Older surfers, Connected to the Internet, still
connected to life?
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011211/b011211a.htm
JUSTICE
Crime statistics 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011210/d011210f.htm
Sentencing in adult criminal courts 1999/2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011206/d011206g.htm
MARKET RESEARCH
Estimates of household spending 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011212/d011212a.htm
*** For more details on this data see information above in Editor's
Comments
Births 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011210/d011210b.htm
Postcensal population estimates by various characteristics July 1, 2001
(preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011121/d011121c.htm
Postcensal population estimates by various characteristics July 1, 1998
to 2001 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011127/d011127d.htm
Survey of Financial Security: Private pension savings 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011214/d011214a.htm
Income trends in Canada on CD-ROM 1980 to 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011207/b011207a.htm
Low-income cutoffs for 2000 and low-income measures for 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011123/d011123g.htm
MANUFACTURING
Canada Food Stats
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011204/b011204a.htm
Dynamics of manufacturing in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver 1976 to
1997
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011123/d011123h.htm
Dynamics of the manufacturing sector in metropolitan and rural regions
1976 to 1997
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011123/d011123i.htm
PERSONAL SERVICES
Personal service industry 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011129/d011129f.htm
TRANSPORTATION & TOURISM
Air fare statistics 1999 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011127/d011127e.htm
Airport activity statistics 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011213/d011213h.htm
Travel arrangement services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011122/d011122f.htm
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TIS THE SEASON FOR HOLIDAY POLLS
Polling has become a powerful marketing tool. Private companies and
organizations have always hired professional polling companies to collect
data on Canadian consumers. What has changed is that while at one time
such activities were conducted for internal purposes only, marketers have
since found that journalists love consumer insight and so will often
publish any survey results made available to them.
Consumer poll results are especially plentiful around Christmas time.
Businesses that have a stake in the holiday market are eager to have their
company name at the top of people's minds. In December 1998 Visa Canada
released the results of a holiday spending poll and achieved a total of
140 million positive media impressions. (Among the findings: 40% of
Canadians buy a gift for their pets.) The following year, the results
yielded 237 million positive media impressions. Clearly, polling can be a
very effective marketing tool.
For the Business researcher these releases can be a valuable source of
insight into a variety of consumer behavior issues. This season we have
seen results on everything from "holiday heartburn" (http://www.newswire.ca/releases/December2001/06/c4363.html)
to the practice of "regifting" (http://www.angusreid.com/media/content/displaypr.cfm?id_to_view=1370).
While many of these polls appear in national and local newspapers, the
best place to locate them is Canada Newswire:
http://www.newswire.ca This is where
the vast majority of survey results are released.
Of course as with any data, a researcher should be cautious about the
source. There are a few things to watch for.
First, it is best if a reputable third party research firm has
collected the data. (e.g. Canadian Tire hired Ipsos-Reid to conduct the
above poll on "regifting" and Canadian shopping habits) While Christmas
polling is lucrative, research companies depend on their reputation as a
reliable, unbiased source of information to generate their primary source
of income. They will not risk corporate credibility for a couple of annual
surveys. Be wary of surveys that are conducted entirely in-house by one
corporation.
Secondly, look carefully at the nature and size of the sample used.
Ideally you want at least 500 responses, more than a 1000 is better.
However once you get over the 1000 respondent threshold, data quality does
not dramatically increase. (e.g. a sample of 2000 is not twice as good as
a sample of 1000).
Also consider how the data was collected. Were people randomly stopped
in a mall or in a specific store or were they telephoned at home? The
environment of contact can influence responses and the nature of the
respondent.
For example a poll released by La Senza states "When asked what women
will be giving their female friends and family, pajamas topped the list at
28 per cent." While this is an insightful revelation, keep in mind the
question was only asked to customers in a La Senza store.
(http://www.newswire.ca/releases/December2001/10/c5077.html)
This does not mean that the survey results are wrong. It just means
that you can not take the 28% and apply it to the entire population (e.g.
28% of Canadian women are not necessarily going to get pajamas for
Christmas (could be more, could be less.) What the poll is telling you is
that nearly one third of women who shop at Canada's largest lingerie
retailer are going to purchase pajamas as a present.
We know from other sources that La Senza holds a 20% market share in
the Canadian lingerie market. The Bay leads the way with a 25% share while
Zellers, Wal-Mart, Sears and others battle it out for the remaining 55%.
Certainly, La Senza customers represent a specific sub-market within
the Canadian lingerie sector. However as a business researcher you have to
acknowledge the fact that the La Senza poll represents the opinions of
that particular market segment.
Finally, consider what questions were asked of respondents. Do they
reflect how the results have been reported? In some cases a news release
or newspaper article highlights the most exciting results of a poll so
that they can create an eye-catching headline. Make sure you read the
actual poll carefully. Does the "exciting stat" really reveal the core
opinion/information gathered from the poll?
Again with the La Senza poll above, one headline read: "Naughty or Nice
for the Holidays? 21 per cent say they want sexy babydolls from their
partner." While this headline with an accompanying picture will certain
attract attention, it does really reveal the core survey results which
are:
"The vast majority of women surveyed, more than 80 per cent, say women
-- mothers, sisters, friends ... not boyfriends, are most likely to
purchase holiday gifts of lingerie. Only nine per cent of women surveyed
expect to receive gifts of intimate apparel from boyfriends. When asked
what women will be giving their female friends and family, pajamas topped
the list at 28 per cent. Cotton/flannel sleepwear was a close second at 19
per cent. "
We always recommend that business researchers save their money by
getting someone else to pay for surveys. However free surveys must be used
with caution. The data is always collected for a purpose other than
researching your specific business. Use all the relevant information you
can find but keep you wits about you. Make sure you understand what the
numbers are really telling you.
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WHAT'S IN STORE FOR E-CHRISTMAS 2001?
We have seen a number of surveys released over the last few weeks that
report on Canadian on-line holiday shopping intentions. You would think
that with the plethora of information available a clear picture of this
season's performance would emerge. WRONG!
The following results all claim to represent Canadian online holiday
shopping intentions for 2001:
21% of Canadians planned to shop online during the Christmas season
(Same as last year)
IPSOS / REID (Nov, 2001)
16% of Canadians plan to shop online during the Christmas Season
(Up 6% over last year).
VISA / THOMAS LIGHTSTONE (Nov 26, 2001)
14% of Canadians planned to shop online during the Christmas season
(Up 40% over last year)
POLLARA (Nov, 2001)
7.5% of Canadian Women plan to shop online during the Christmas Season
6 SHOPPING MALLS ACROSS CANADA / ANTHONY RUSSELL & ASSOCIATES
(Dec 5 2001)
2% of Canadians plan to shop online during the Christmas Season
(Down 50% over last year)
AMERICAN EXPRESS /LEGER MARKETING (Nov 27, 2001)
Who is right? We might have a better idea come January when the post
Christmas shopping polls are released. For now, the best a business
researcher can do is look at the methodology each poll employed. The
following quotes are from each research firm:
IPSOS / REID
The results are based on two separate data collection instruments. In
the first, 1,000 web users from Ipsos-Reid's Canadian Internet Panel are
surveyed online. Panelists are chosen through random telephone surveys
conducted on an ongoing basis across Canada. Results are complemented by a
further 1,000 interviews via telephone with Canadian adults in order to
verify results of the panel, and track issues among non-Internet users.
Telephone interviews for this release were conducted between September 6th
and 19th, 2001 while the online data was collected between September 18th
and 25th, 2001. Our panelists represent approximately 12.6 million
Canadian adult Internet users who are online for one hour a week or more
(there are a total of 15.6 million adults who have Internet access).
With a national sample of 1,000 (for each component), one can say with
95% certainty that the overall results are within a maximum of ±3.1
percentage points of what they would have been had the entire population
of Canada's regular online users been surveyed.
http://www.angusreid.com/media/content/displaypr.cfm?id_to_view=1367
POLLARA
The poll was done through a random survey of 1,600 Canadian adults
http://www.pollara.com
AMERICAN EXPRESS /LEGER MARKETING
The 2001 American Express Canadian Holiday Shopping Survey is based on
telephone interviews conducted among random samples of 607 adult Canadians
and 200 American Express Card members between November 9th and November
15th. Samples of this size produce national results that can be considered
accurate within 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of
error increased when the results were broken down by Card member. The
research was conducted by Léger Marketing.
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/November2001/27/c0970.html
VISA / THOMAS LIGHTSTONE
The national telephone survey was conducted between October 25th and
October 31st, 2001. A total of 1,000 male and female respondents 18 years
of age and older were interviewed. The findings are accurate, plus or
minus 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/November2001/26/c0548.html
6 SHOPPING MALLS / ANTHONY RUSSELL & ASSOCIATES
Surveys were conducted daily during a one week period at all 6 shopping
centres. 600 qualified surveys were completed. All survey candidates were
female, 84% were the primary shopper in their household, 83% were between
the ages 25-54 years and 40% had children under 18 years of age.
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/December2001/05/c4107.html
Certainly the IPSOS-REID poll has the most comprehensive sample. As a
researcher however it is important not to arbitrarily dismiss one poll
over another. For your market research to be effective you need to keep
all the results in mind.
Also consider how the results of each could be affected. Some of the
Ipsos-Reid polling was done prior to 09/11. The Anthony Russell &
Associates poll was strictly conducted in Canadians malls and involved
only women. The American Express survey was heavily weighted with American
Express clients who the year before also indicated low online shopping
intentions (4%)
The varying online shopping intention levels released could also
reflect the emotional roller coaster we have all been on this fall. At one
point in October the thought of receiving a package in the mail was
frightening.
Finally keep in mind that every poll has an accuracy level. Most of the
above polls are plus or minus 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20. Any one of
the above results could be the statistical 1 out of 20 and therefore
entirely inaccurate or any of the percentages could increase or decrease
by 3.1% or more.
Still the question remains - what sort of e-Christmas is in store for
2001? Looking at the polls and judging from our own performance and that
of my wife's fleece clothing business (fleece wraps, ponchos, baby
clothes, hats etc.) (http:www.polarpatternz.com), I will go out on a limb
and suggest a range of 16%-18% of Canadians will be shopping on-line this
Christmas. Of course how much they are actually going to spend is another
question altogether. If you want a definite answer on that one call me in
January!
*******************
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SMALL BUSINESS STATS FACTS
1. How prevalent is cell phone and pager use among Canadian small
businesses?
Employees of Canadian small businesses (93 per cent) are almost three
times as likely to use cell phones as the Canadian population (33 per
cent). They are also nearly twice as likely (21 per cent) to use pagers
as the general population (11 per cent).
Source: Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association (CWTA)/Paging
Council (Dec 6 2001)
2. Will Small Business continue to use cell phones and pagers?
More than 58 per cent of small businesses surveyed say they expect to
use a cell phone more often in the future (vs. one per cent who say
they'll use them less often); and nearly 19 per cent say they will use
two-way pagers more often (vs. four per cent who say they'll use them
less often).
Source: Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association (CWTA)/Paging
Council (Dec 6 2001)
3. What outlook for the future do Canadian small businesses have?
Despite the current economic climate, Canadian small businesses are
still optimistic about the future. Of those responding, nearly 95 per
cent say they expect to have either the same number of employees or even
more employees over the next five years. The majority of survey
responses (69 per cent) came from businesses with five or fewer
employees.
Source: Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association (CWTA)/Paging
Council (Dec 6 2001)
4. What are the top ten business opportunities for 2002?
PROFIT's Top 10 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
1. Small Indulgences: feel-good products for stressful times
2. E-health: improving the health-care system through information
technology
3. Her Money: financial advice for women
4. Auto Repair: saving people money by keeping their cars running
longer
5. Endings: preparing an aging population for death
6. Information Brokers: finding what your clients want to know in a
glut of information
7. In-home Services: beautify consumers' hair and gardens
8. Online Moms: organize people's lives over the Net
9. Mr. Fix-It 2.0: computer repairs for home-based and small
businesses
10. Security: from privacy software to franchised security firms
Source: Profit Magazine Dec/Jan 2002 issue
5. What percentage of small business owners have put a continuation
plan in place in preparation for retirement, disability or death?
42%
Source: The Imperial Life Assurance Company of Canada (Nov 28, 2001)
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